I have been explaining to you for eight years that it is a good system. Now they’re going to have to figure it out.” The humorous words were tweeted by Belgian comedian Alex Vizorek, a regular columnist at the morning of 9/7 on radio France Inter. They refer to the famous “Belgian-style compromise” resulting from every legislative election in our country, and which the French liked to mock until now, not knowing that one day they would face it.
Because the French legislative elections on Sunday, in a two-round format imagined by Charles De Gaulle to facilitate the constitution of post-election majorities, are historic in the sense that they almost never happened – it happened only once in 1988 with the duel between Mitterrand and Chirac – The newly elected president did not have an absolute majority (245 seats out of the 289 needed) to start his term.
With a deficit of 69 seats compared to its landslide victory in 2017, the Macronian majority will have to master the art of compromise. and compose
Towards an implosion of the left alliance?
On Monday morning, very astute was he who could predict what the future alliances would be. But the decision taken by the Socialist Party, Europe Ecologie Les Verts (EELV) and the French Communist Party in the early afternoon he may have removed a famous thorn from Emmanuel Macron’s foot. “There was never talk of a single group: there will be a socialist group in the National Assembly”said Pierre Jouvet, PS spokesman. “It’s not about blending into one group”For his part, the EELV spokesman, Alain Coulombel, reacted.
Formed to oppose the Assemble! group, the New Ecological and Social People’s Union (Nupes) thus appears to have been stillborn, even if the president of La France insoumise, Mathilde Panot, tried a gamble by offering a rotating presidency to the others departed from Nupes. .
An implosion of Numes would be a boon to Macron, who could then associate himself with one of the four parties that make up Nupes, even if an alliance with Mélenchon’s insubordinate France seems compromised in view of the dissensions with Macron.
Which party to support Macron?
To obtain an absolute majority, the Ensemble group is 44 seats short! If a cordon sanitaire – the term does not exist since in France – seems to prevent Marine Le Pen’s National Rally – but great winner of these elections by multiplying by eleven the number of its elected officials (89) -, there are only two possibilities left for Emmanuel Macron. The first would be to join forces with the Republicans (61 seats) to benefit from a comfortable absolute majority (306 elected). but monday President LR Christian Jacob announced that his party would remain in opposition.
The second would be to associate with Nupes parties. An alliance with Mélenchon’s France Insoumise, however, seems compromised given the mood incompatibilities between the main stakeholder and Macron. To which it should later join, in an unprecedented tripartite, formed with the PS (24 seats) and the EELV (23 seats).
Why can’t Macron rule alone?
This would put the opposition in an absolute majority state. He could then block any bill introduced by the presidential minority. And make the country ungovernable. Each project must be negotiated on a case-by-case basis. This solution is plausible: the Rocard government had tried it between 1988 and 1991, but its relative majority was more comfortable (275 seats) and therefore required less external support. With 245 seats for Macron, this solution is not, in fact, the most credible.
Towards a resignation of Elisabeth Borne?
The day after the legislative elections, the opposition claimed the head of Elisabeth Borne, appointed to the post of Prime Minister by Macron on May 16. Elected straight away (52.3%) in the Cavaldos, she will have to work in the next few hours to form an alliance. Before you deliver?
Who as prime minister?
To ensure the loyalty of a group in the National Assembly, Macron is interested in making an attractive offer. Whether in prominent ministerial positions such as Interior, Justice, National Education or Economy. Or the position of Prime Minister. In all probability, the future prime minister will be a Macronian or a member of the PS, EELV or LR.