If the number of new daily cases shows a downward trend, confirming that the epidemic peak seems to have passed, the hospital peak has not yet been reached as the figures published this Thursday, July 14, by Public Health France show a marked increase.
“In week 27, the increase in the incidence of Covid-19 slowed down, remaining at a very high level with a marked increase in hospital admissions and deaths.” Here’s what to remember from Public Health France’s latest weekly update on the evolution of the Covid epidemic in France.
While the number of covid-related deaths remains very low compared to previous peaks, as Nicolas Berrod, Le Parisien’s journalist specializing in virus-related issues on Twitter, points out, the number of daily deaths of covid patients in the hospital has increased. doubled in ten days. (78 deaths, against 40 on average for a month).
Version far from the beginning of the pandemic, which shows that we are at very low levels compared to previous peaks.
– Nicholas Berrod (@nicolasberrod) July 15, 2022
Confirmed increase in hospitalizations
In detail, Public Health France explains that this week, “the increase in new hospitalizations (8,063, +19%) continued after an increase of 26% the previous week (after data consolidation). Similarly, admissions in critical care units increased by 22% in W27.”
The increase in the number of cases appears to be slowing. “The increase in incidence has slowed down although it remains at a very high level,” says SPF. With a reproduction rate, or the number of infected people per patient, of 1.20, the epidemic is still advancing, but less quickly than last week, when the reproduction rate was 1.45.
The epidemic peak behind us?
Does this mean that the peak of the seventh wave has passed? It is possible, since if the number of daily cases remains very high on average, it seems that a decline is beginning.
Caution, however, since the summer period and its various population mixes do not protect us from a new epidemic outbreak and SPF recalls that “compliance with combined measures remains essential to protect the most vulnerable populations.”
If the consecutive drop in the number of daily cases suggests that the epidemic peak has been crossed, it is different for the hospital peak.
In fact, the decrease in contaminations combined with the increase in hospitalizations is not that surprising, given that the time that can elapse between a positive test and hospital admission. This Tuesday, July 12, Mahmoud Zureik, an epidemiology and public health practitioner, warned in the parisian what “if the peak of identified contaminations were confirmed in the next few days, the peak in the hospital would occur within ten days”.